Courage under fire: Seagrass persistence adjacent to a highly urbanised city–state

Due to increasing development Southeast Asia’s coastlines are undergoing massive changes, but the associated impacts on marine habitats are poorly known. Singapore, a densely populated island city–state, is a quintessential example of coastal modification that has resulted in the (hitherto undocumented) loss of seagrass. We reconstructed the historic extent and diversity of local seagrass meadows through herbarium records and backwards extrapolation from contemporary seagrass locations. We also determined the current status of seagrass meadows using long-term monitoring data and identified the main threats to their presence in Singapore. Results show that, even though ∼45% of seagrass has been lost during the last five decades, species diversity remains stable. The main cause of seagrass loss was, and continues to be, land reclamation. We conclude that strict controls on terrestrial runoff and pollution have made it possible for seagrass to persist adjacent to this highly urbanised city–state.     

Examination of chloritization of biotite as a tool for reconstructing the physicochemical parameters of mineralization and associated alteration in the Zafarghand porphyry copper system,Ardestan, Central Iran: mineral-chemistry and stable isotope analyses

Mineralogy and Petrology - The chloritization of biotite and stable isotopes of silicate have been studied for the Zafarghand porphyry copper deposit, Ardestan, Iran. The studied area, in the...     

Coastal Wave Height Prediction using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) in the South Caspian Sea

The prediction of wave parameters has a great significance in the coastal and offshore engineering. For this purpose, several models and approaches have been proposed to predict wave parameters, such as empirical, soft computing, and numerical based approaches. Recently, soft computing techniques such as recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been used to develop sea wave prediction models. In this study, the RNN for wave prediction based on the data gathered and the measurement of the sea waves in the Caspian Sea, in the north of Iran is used for this study. The efficiency of RNNs for 3, 6, and 12 hourly and diurnal wave prediction using correlation coefficients is calculated to be 0.96, 0.90, 0.87, and 0.73, respectively. This indicates that wave prediction by using RNNs yields better results than the previous neural network approaches.     

Spatial hydrological drought characteristics in Karkheh River basin,southwest Iran using copulas

Investigation on drought characteristics such as severity, duration, and frequency is crucial for water resources planning and management in a river basin. While the methodology for multivariate drought frequency analysis is well established by applying the copulas, the estimation on the associated parameters by various parameter estimation methods and the effects on the obtained results have not yet been investigated. This research aims at conducting a comparative analysis between the maximum likelihood parametric and non-parametric method of the Kendall \(\tau \) estimation method for copulas parameter estimation. The methods were employed to study joint severity–duration probability and recurrence intervals in Karkheh River basin (southwest Iran) which is facing severe water-deficit problems. Daily streamflow data at three hydrological gauging stations (Tang Sazbon, Huleilan and Polchehr) near the Karkheh dam were used to draw flow duration curves (FDC) of these three stations. The \(Q_{75}\) index extracted from the FDC were set as threshold level to abstract drought characteristics such as drought duration and severity on the basis of the run theory. Drought duration and severity were separately modeled using the univariate probabilistic distributions and gamma–GEV, LN2–exponential, and LN2–gamma were selected as the best paired drought severity–duration inputs for copulas according to the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Kolmogorov–Smirnov and chi-square tests. Archimedean Clayton, Frank, and extreme value Gumbel copulas were employed to construct joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDF) of droughts for each station. Frank copula at Tang Sazbon and Gumbel at Huleilan and Polchehr stations were identified as the best copulas based on the performance evaluation criteria including AIC, BIC, log-likelihood and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Based on the RMSE values, nonparametric Kendall-\(\tau \) is preferred to the parametric maximum likelihood estimation method. The results showed greater drought return periods by the parametric ML method in comparison to the nonparametric Kendall \(\tau \) estimation method. The results also showed that stations located in tributaries (Huleilan and Polchehr) have close return periods, while the station along the main river (Tang Sazbon) has the smaller return periods for the drought events with identical drought duration and severity.     

Geochemistry and zircon U-Pb geochronology of Miocene plutons in the Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc,east Tafresh,Central Iran

ABSTRACT

The Tafresh plutons that include Ahmadabab diorite, Vasfonjerd monzonite, Mehrezamin diorite and Chahak diorite, located to the east of Tafresh city, north-central Iran, are part of Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc. U-Pb dating of zircon grains provides emplacement ages of 22.3 ± 1 Ma for the Ahmadabad diorite, and tightly clustered ages of 22.2 ± 0.2 Ma, 21.3 ± 0.2 Ma, and 21.7 ± 0.4 Ma for Vasfonjerd monzodiorite, Mehrezamin diorite-monzonite, and Chahak diorite-monzonite plutons, respectively. These rocks are metaluminous to weakly peraluminous, calc-alkaline, and characterized by enrichment in light rare earth elements, Nb-Ta negative anomalies, and high LILE/HFSE ratios. Tafresh plutonic rocks originated from a parental magma source and experienced different degrees of partial melting. Geochemical signatures of Tafresh plutonic rocks, such as a wide range of Y/Nb (2.7–8.4) and low Zr/Nb (19.5–35.) ratios, Nb/Ta (11.46–18.15), argue for mantle–crust interaction during generation of Tafresh magmas. Relatively low Nb/La ratios further indicate that the lithospheric mantle played a significant role in melt generation. HREE signatures (i.e. decrease Dy/Yb with increasing SiO₂) preclude substantial involvement of garnet either in the residue, both during partial melting and fractionation of the magma. The plutons are a product of final stages of subduction-related magmatism prior to the collision between the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates.     

Projections of temperature changes over South America during the twenty-first century using CMIP6 models

A 22-member ensemble from CMIP6 is used to analyze the projected changes and seasonal behavior in surface air temperature over South America during the twenty-first century. In the future projections, CMIP6 models shown a high dependency to the socioeconomic pathway over each country of South America. The multimodel ensemble projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South America during the twenty-first century under the three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Besides, it was possible to identify consistent positive trends across all the models, with values between 0.45 ± 0.05 and 2.05 ± 0.31 °C cy⁻¹ under the historical experiment, however largest trends occurs for the projection periods (near, mid and far future), with values between − 0.87 ± 0.84 to 2.88 ± 0.60 °C cy⁻¹ (SSP1-2.6), 1.41 ± 0.88 to 5.32 ± 0.81 °C cy⁻¹ (SSP2-4.5) and 4.75 ± 0.58 to 8.76 ± 0.74 °C cy⁻¹ (SSP5-8.5) with maximum values at Bolivia, Brasil, Paraguay and Venezuela whilst minimum values for Argentina and Uruguay, regardless of the SSP scenario used. From the seasonal behavior analysis was possible to identify maximum values between January and March whilst minimum between June and July, except in Brasil, Venezuela and Guyana–Surinam–French Guayana, with annual range decreasing as the latidude decreases. By the end of the twenty-first century the annual mean temperature over South america is projected to increase between 0.92–2.11 °C, 0.97–3.37 °C and 1.27–6.14 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projection scenarios respectively. This projected increase of temperature across the continent will produce negative repercussions in the social, economic and political spheres. The results obtained in this study provide insights about the CMIP6 performance over this region, which can be used to develop adaptation strategies and might be useful for the adaptation to the climate change.

     

A systematized review exploring the map of publications on the health impacts of drought

Natural Hazards - Climate change is likely to increase the risk of drought which impacts on health are not quite known well due to its creeping nature. This study maps the publications on the...     

Seismic risk assessment of a steel building supported on helical pile groups

Acta Geotechnica - Designing structures to be the least vulnerable within earthquake-prone areas is a serious challenge for structural engineers. One common and useful tool that structural...     

Modeling flood event characteristics using D-vine structures

The authors investigate the use of drawable (D-)vine structures to model the dependences existing among the main characteristics of a flood event, i.e., flood volume, flood peak, duration, and peak time. Firstly, different three- and four-dimensional probability distributions were built considering all the permutations of the conditioning variables. The Frank copula was used to model the dependence of each pair of variables. Then, the appropriate D-vine structures were selected using information criteria and a goodness-of-fit test. The influence of varying the data length on the selected D-vine structure was also investigated. Finally, flood event characteristics were simulated using the four-dimensional D-vine structure.